While Reform UK’s “two fingers to the establishment” message may carry a certain populist appeal, a closer look at what the party stands for - and what it might deliver if ever in power - raises serious concerns.

In Monmouthshire, Reform’s presence is minimal. They have no county councillors, and at the 2024 general election their 10 per cent share of the vote was among their weakest results in Wales. Yet it would be complacent to dismiss them. The wall-to-wall coverage of their recent party conference shows a movement that is confident, growing, and eager to project influence far beyond its current base of four MPs.

The content of that conference was troubling. Among the keynote speakers was a notorious anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist who claimed, without evidence, that Covid vaccines had given members of the Royal Family cancer. This is dangerous rhetoric that undermines public health and fuels mistrust in science.

Even more alarming was the welcome given to Lucy Connolly, who only recently completed a prison sentence after pleading guilty to inciting racial hatred by urging people to burn down a migrant hotel. Whatever one thinks about the length of her sentence, to reward such behaviour with a standing ovation sends a chilling signal about the values Reform is willing to celebrate.

On the very day Angela Rayner resigned over unpaid stamp duty, Nigel Farage criticised her while refusing to confirm his own tax affairs, brushing off questions with “it’s nobody’s business.” For a man who thrives on portraying himself as plain-speaking and honest, this evasiveness is telling. His continued admiration for Trump and the sight of Reform supporters chanting “Make Britain Great Again” only reinforces the perception of a politics rooted in fake nostalgia, grievance, and division.

Closer to home, Reform’s Welsh offering borders on incoherent. Their recently defected Senedd Member floated the idea of scrapping the Senedd altogether, a contradiction of Farage’s earlier position. Such flip-flopping reveals a party trying to be all things to all people, with a policy vacuum papered over by slogans. The few commitments they have announced, such as nationalising the steel industry and reopening the blast furnaces at Port Talbot, are entirely uncosted.

In short, Reform UK offers anger without answers, theatre without substance. For Monmouthshire residents, the risk is not that Reform UK are strong here, but that they are given the benefit of the doubt. The evidence suggests they should not be.