Two-thirds of people in Wales are unclear about major changes to the Senedd voting system ahead of the upcoming election, according to new public polling.

The findings come from the first wave of the Welsh Election Study 2026, led by researchers from Aberystwyth University and Swansea University, and provide an early snapshot of political knowledge, trust and engagement in Wales ahead of the Senedd election .

Based on survey responses from 10,001 people across Wales, the research found that two-thirds were unable to correctly answer questions about the expansion of the Senedd, the creation of new constituencies and how the new electoral system will work.

Awareness of the new closed list electoral system was particularly low. Almost 88% of respondents were either incorrect or said they did not know how it works, with just under 12% demonstrating a correct understanding.

The findings come despite relatively high reported interest in politics. Nearly six in ten respondents (59%) said they were interested in the forthcoming Senedd election, and many expressed interest in politics at Welsh, UK and local levels. However, understanding of who is responsible for key policy areas was often confused.

Around half of respondents were either incorrect or unaware that the Senedd controls policy areas such as the NHS, agriculture and economic development. Only 40% correctly identified that policing remains the responsibility of the UK Government.

The study also highlights a clear generational divide. Younger respondents were significantly less well informed about the division of powers between the Welsh and UK governments. Only 28% of 16–25-year-olds knew that the Welsh Government is responsible for the NHS, compared with 62.7% of those aged 65 and over.

Trust in political institutions was generally low. More than two-thirds of respondents reported limited or no trust in the UK Government. While trust levels were slightly higher for the Welsh Government, almost half of those surveyed still expressed mistrust.

Most respondents also felt they had little influence over political decision-making. Over 60% said they had no influence over decisions made by the UK Government, compared with 52% for decisions affecting Wales and just over 40% at the local level.

Negative emotions dominated perceptions of the forthcoming Senedd election. When asked to describe it in a single word, 83% of respondents expressed negative feelings, with disappointment, frustration and worry among the most common responses. Only 17% used positive terms.

Dr Anwen Elias of Aberystwyth University, who authored the analysis and co-leads the study, said the findings raise important questions about democratic participation in Wales.

“Overall, these findings suggest a Welsh electorate that is generally interested in politics, including the upcoming Senedd election. However, understanding of how democracy works in Wales is mixed, and knowledge of the electoral reforms in place for the next election is limited,” she said.

Dr Bettina Petersohn from Swansea University added that while attitudes towards democratic processes in Wales were broadly positive, many people felt disengaged from decision-making and poorly informed about the new voting system.